Preseason Rankings
Summit League
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
153 North Dakota St. 25.1%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 10 - 6 +0.6      +1.8 120 -1.3 201 64.2 300 0.0 1 0.0 1
165 South Dakota 20.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 10 - 6 -0.2      -0.1 183 -0.1 167 67.7 209 0.0 1 0.0 1
195 Nebraska Omaha 13.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 9 - 7 -2.2      +1.3 131 -3.5 276 69.5 154 0.0 1 0.0 1
205 Oral Roberts 11.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 14 9 - 7 -2.7      +2.0 113 -4.7 306 67.5 212 0.0 1 0.0 1
224 South Dakota St. 9.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 8 -3.5      -0.4 192 -3.1 262 75.9 38 0.0 1 0.0 1
241 Purdue Fort Wayne 7.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 8 -4.5      -0.5 200 -4.0 288 77.8 20 0.0 1 0.0 1
262 North Dakota 6.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 9 -5.5      -2.9 260 -2.6 243 73.3 74 0.0 1 0.0 1
283 Western Illinois 3.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 15 6 - 10 -6.9      -3.6 277 -3.3 271 68.2 190 0.0 1 0.0 1
305 Denver 2.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 20 5 - 11 -8.3      -3.1 267 -5.2 317 68.0 206 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
North Dakota St. 3.0 33.0 19.8 14.3 10.5 8.3 5.7 4.2 2.8 1.5
South Dakota 3.3 27.0 19.7 15.1 11.6 9.0 6.9 5.5 3.4 1.8
Nebraska Omaha 4.1 16.4 15.8 14.4 13.5 11.4 10.1 8.3 6.4 3.9
Oral Roberts 4.3 14.7 14.2 13.7 12.9 12.2 10.6 9.5 7.6 4.7
South Dakota St. 4.6 11.5 12.7 13.1 13.2 13.3 11.4 10.2 8.6 6.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 5.0 8.7 10.4 11.5 12.4 12.8 12.9 11.8 11.1 8.4
North Dakota 5.5 6.5 8.0 10.1 11.1 12.1 13.3 13.8 13.3 11.7
Western Illinois 6.0 3.9 5.9 7.6 9.2 11.1 13.2 14.8 17.0 17.2
Denver 6.6 2.0 3.9 5.5 7.4 9.2 12.0 15.4 19.2 25.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
North Dakota St. 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.6 6.7 8.5 10.4 12.5 13.0 12.9 10.9 8.4 4.8 1.5
South Dakota 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.7 5.5 7.4 9.8 11.7 12.8 13.1 11.8 9.5 6.6 3.4 1.1
Nebraska Omaha 9 - 7 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.0 6.4 8.3 10.4 11.6 12.7 11.9 10.7 8.2 6.1 3.6 1.6 0.4
Oral Roberts 9 - 7 0.1 0.6 1.3 3.0 4.8 7.3 9.0 11.1 12.0 12.1 11.4 10.1 7.5 5.2 3.1 1.3 0.3
South Dakota St. 8 - 8 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.5 5.4 7.9 10.1 11.9 12.5 12.4 10.8 8.7 6.5 4.0 2.2 0.9 0.3
Purdue Fort Wayne 8 - 8 0.3 1.0 2.6 5.4 7.4 9.3 11.0 12.8 12.3 11.0 9.4 7.4 4.8 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.1
North Dakota 7 - 9 0.5 1.9 3.9 6.6 8.9 11.3 12.3 12.2 11.4 10.1 8.0 5.7 3.6 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1
Western Illinois 6 - 10 0.9 3.4 6.1 9.1 11.4 12.5 12.8 11.7 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Denver 5 - 11 1.8 5.0 8.7 12.0 13.6 13.5 12.1 10.5 8.0 6.1 4.2 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
North Dakota St. 33.0% 23.4 7.5 1.7 0.2 0.0
South Dakota 27.0% 18.2 6.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 16.4% 10.6 4.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Oral Roberts 14.7% 9.1 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 11.5% 7.0 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 8.7% 5.0 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Dakota 6.5% 3.8 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Western Illinois 3.9% 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Denver 2.0% 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
North Dakota St. 25.1% 25.1% 0.1% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.0 4.3 6.4 6.3 5.3 74.9 0.1%
South Dakota 20.7% 20.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.4 5.1 5.8 4.6 79.3 0.1%
Nebraska Omaha 13.3% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.0 3.9 86.7 0.0%
Oral Roberts 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.1 3.5 4.1 88.4 0.0%
South Dakota St. 9.8% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.3 90.2 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.4 92.6 0.0%
North Dakota 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.0 93.9 0.0%
Western Illinois 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 96.2 0.0%
Denver 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 97.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
North Dakota St. 25.1% 2.5% 24.1% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 20.7% 2.3% 19.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 13.3% 2.0% 12.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 11.6% 2.2% 10.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota St. 9.8% 2.5% 8.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 7.4% 2.0% 6.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 6.1% 1.8% 5.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 3.8% 1.4% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 2.5% 1.1% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
1st Round 92.0% 0.9 8.0 91.9 0.2
2nd Round 6.8% 0.1 93.2 6.8
Sweet Sixteen 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0